Here’s what keeps my No Recession glass at least half-full. Both here and in the US there are more vacancies than unemployed. That doesn’t mean, of course, that there are jobs that those without can or would want to do. Now-jobless fund managers, for instance, are unlikely to be found on airport check-ins, caring in care homes or other dose-of-the-real-world roles. It should mean, however, that if some companies struggle and lay-off there are plenty to take up the slack and lay-on. So we keep buying stuff and flying to Marbs, demand stays high, interest rates stay affordable and we stumble on as usual. That is the theory that I have and which is mine (one for the Python fans, kids etc.)
“UK slips into recession as economy contracts 0.1% in December”
This week’s big economic and bad election news is that we are, or certainly have been, officially in a recession. You may not have thought you were, or you may have thought you have been for some time, as we and its effects are all different.