“Reaction: UK economy returns to growth as GDP rises by 0.3%”

Jan 17, 2024 | Economy, Inflation

OK, this sounds like good news, doesn’t I? Last month’s figures showed a fall in GDP, and three of those in a row equals ‘technical recession’. These latest figures show we’re growing; by not a lot, but would guess that most would take it. Today, however, we heard that inflation is up, rather than down. By not a lot, in fact only as much as the economy has grown, but still up rather than down, and what’s going on in the Red Sea is predicted to make lots of stuff more expensive still.  The key factor is whether interest rates will have to go up again, to in theory stop us from being able to afford that stuff that we can’t afford anyway because it’s already so expensive. Confused? I’d say even the economists are most of the time. My best guess is that they won’t go up further, just might not go down very quickly. Pain, gain, etc….

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“Consumer Confidence Drops Amid Budget Uncertainty”

“Consumer Confidence Drops Amid Budget Uncertainty”

Will they/won’t they? Hit pension tax relief/tax-free lump sums/annual allowance/lifetime allowance? What about Inheritance Tax and Capital Gains Tax? And although they’ve said they won’t touch the rate of VAT, might they extend it? To the cost of our advice, for instance?

“Falling UK wage growth boosts chances of August rate cut”

“Falling UK wage growth boosts chances of August rate cut”

Silver linings and all that. Growth in wages is slowing, (some) inflation is down, which means interest rates are more than likely, I’d say, to come down a bit next month. Long-term, most predictors think they’ll get to and stay around 3.5%, quite a reduction from the current 5.25%.