“How the world economy could avoid recession”

Feb 1, 2023 | Economy

Fund managers can often sound like politicians; or economists; or even weather forecasters. ‘The chances of a global recession have diminished but we cannot altogether rule it out, which could benefit share prices in cyclical stocks. Do be prepared for the odd shower, particularly over higher ground and although I cannot comment until the enquiry is complete, the minister of course has my full confidence’. In other words, it’s usually more than their jobs worth to stick their necks out and say ‘it’s going to be OK’, just in case it isn’t. I did ask, at a presentation this week, the sort of question that we’re currently often asked by our clients: ‘If we can now get a return of 4% in the bank, what can we now expect from the sort of medium risk portfolio in which most of our clients are invested?’ As you might expect, no hard and fast promises were made. They confirmed, however, that ‘the stock market has outperformed cash in 69% of two year periods and 91% of 10 year periods’. So if you’re able to hang on in there, it’s more than likely worth investing. Nothing new, but still reassuring. I’d say. 

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